Family-based association of HLA-DRB1 and DQB1 alleles and haplotypes in a group of Iranian Type 1 diabetes children.

This family-based study was conducted in a group of Iranians with Type 1 diabetes (T1D) to investigate the transmission from parents of risk and non-risk HLA alleles and haplotypes, and to estimate the genetic risk score for this disease within this population. A total of 240 T1D subjects including 111 parent-child trios (111 children with T1D, 133 siblings, and 222 parents) and 330 ethnically matched healthy individuals were recruited. High-resolution HLA typing for DRB1/DQB1 loci was performed for all study subjects (n = 925) using polymerase chain reaction-sequence-specific oligonucleotide probe method. The highest predisposing effect on developing T1D was conferred by the following haplotypes both in all subjects and in probands compared to controls: DRB1*04:05-DQB1*03:02 (Pc = 2.97e-06 and Pc = 6.04e-10, respectively), DRB1*04:02-DQB1*03:02 (Pc = 5.94e-17 and Pc = 3.86e-09, respectively), and DRB1*03:01-DQB1*02:01 (Pc = 8.26e-29 and Pc = 6.56e-16, respectively). Conversely, the major protective haplotypes included DRB1*13:01-DQB1*06:03 (Pc = 6.99e-08), DRB1*15:01-DQB1*06:02 (Pc = 2.97e-06) in the cases versus controls. Also, DRB1*03:01-DQB1*02:01/DRB1*04:02|05-DQB1*03:02 and DRB1*03:01-DQB1*02:01/DRB1*03:01-DQB1*02:01 diplotypes conferred the highest predisposing effect in the cases (Pc = 8.65e-17 and Pc = 6.26e-08, respectively) and in probands (Pc = 5.4e-15 and Pc = 0.001, respectively) compared to controls. Transmission disequilibrium test showed that the highest risk was conferred by DRB1*04:02-DQB1*03:02 (Pc = 3.26e-05) and DRB1*03:01-DQB1*02:01 (Pc = 1.78e-12) haplotypes and the highest protection by DRB1*14:01-DQB1*05:03 (Pc = 8.66e-05), DRB1*15:01-DQB1*06:02 (Pc = 0.002), and DRB1*11:01-DQB1*03:01 (Pc = 0.0003) haplotypes. Based on logistic regression analysis, carriage of risk haplotypes increased the risk of T1D development 24.5 times in the Iranian population (p = 5.61e-13). Also, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed a high predictive power of those risk haplotypes in discrimination of susceptible from healthy individuals (area under curve: 0.88, p = 5.5e-32). Our study highlights the potential utility of genetic risk assessment based on HLA diplotypes for predicting T1D risk in individuals, particularly among family members of affected children in our population.

Predicting mortality and recurrence in colorectal cancer: Comparative assessment of predictive models.

Introduction: Colorectal cancer (CRC), also known as colorectal cancer, is a significant disease marked by high fatality rates, ranking as the third leading cause of global mortality. The main objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of predictive models in predicting both mortality events and the probability of disease recurrence. Method: A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 284 individuals diagnosed with colorectal cancer between 2001 and 2017. Demographic and clinical data, including gender, disease stage, age at diagnosis, recurrence status, and treatment details, were meticulously recorded. We rigorously evaluated various predictive models, including Decision Trees, Random Forests, Random Survival Forests (RSF), Gradient Boosting, mboost, Deep Learning Neural Network (DLNN), and Cox regression. Performance metrics, such as sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC area), and overall accuracy, were calculated for each model to predict mortality and disease recurrence. The analysis was performed using R version 4.1.3 software and the Python programming language. Results: For mortality prediction, the mboost model demonstrated the highest sensitivity at 96.9% (95% CI: 0.83-0.99) and an ROC area of 0.88. It also exhibited high specificity at 80% (95% CI: 0.59-0.93), a positive predictive value of 86.1% (95% CI: 0.70-0.95), and an overall accuracy of 89% (95% CI: 0.78-0.96). Random Forests showed perfect sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 0.85-1) but had low specificity at 0% (95% CI: 0-0.52) and poor overall accuracy (50%). On the other hand, DLNN had the lowest performance metrics for mortality prediction, with a sensitivity of 24% (95% CI: 0.222-0.268), specificity of 75% (95% CI: 0.73-0.77), and a lower positive predictive value of 42% (95% CI: 0.38-0.45). The Gradient Boosting model showed the best performance in predicting recurrence, achieving perfect sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 0.87-1) and high specificity at 92.9% (95% CI: 0.76-0.99). It also had a high positive predictive value of 93.3% (95% CI: 0.77-0.99). Gradient Boosting, with an ROC area of 96.4%, and mboost, with an ROC area of 75%, demonstrated remarkable performance. DLNN had the lowest performance metrics for recurrence prediction, with sensitivity at 1.75% (95% CI: 0.01-0.02), specificity at 98% (95% CI: 0.97-0.98), and a lower positive predictive value at 52.6% (95% CI: 0.39-0.65). Conclusion: In summary, the mboost model demonstrated outstanding performance in predicting mortality, achieving exceptional results across various evaluation metrics. Random Forests exhibited perfect sensitivity but showed poor specificity and overall accuracy. The DLNN model displayed the lowest performance metrics for mortality prediction. In terms of recurrence prediction, the Gradient Boosting model outperformed other models with perfect sensitivity, high specificity, and positive predictive value. The DLNN model had the lowest performance metrics for recurrence prediction. Overall, the results emphasize the effectiveness of the mboost and Gradient Boosting models in predicting mortality and recurrence in colorectal cancer patients.

Increasing Prevalence and High Survival Rate of Liver Transplanted Patients with NASH and PSC Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies on liver transplant (LT) patients can provide valuable information about the etiology and trends of cirrhosis. The present study aimed to investigate the prevalence and trend of different etiologies and survival rates of LT patients at the Namazi Transplant Center in Shiraz, Iran, between 2001 and 2018. METHODS: In this single-center, retrospective cohort study, the demographic and clinical characteristics of 3751 patients who underwent LT and met the study inclusion criteria, including age, gender, blood group, body mass index, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, cause of cirrhosis, and diabetes, were extracted from patients' physical or electronic medical records between 2001 and 2018. RESULTS: The MELD scores of LT patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) cirrhosis significantly decreased over the study period (P<0.001). Among the LT patients, HBV infection had the highest frequency (21.09%), followed by cryptogenic (17.33%) and PSC (17.22%). The proportion of patients with PSC and NASH (both P<0.001) cirrhosis was significantly increased, so that PSC cirrhosis (2016: 19.4%, 2018: 18.8%) surpassed HBV (2016: 18.4%, 2018: 13.5%), autoimmune hepatitis (2016: 11.7%, 2018: 12.7%), and cryptogenic cirrhosis (2016: 16.1%, 2018:14%) as the leading indication for LT from 2016 to the end of the study period. Fortunately, these patients had a better survival rate than other common diseases (HR: 0.53, CI: 0.43‒0.66; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: The proportion of NASH and PSC cirrhosis significantly increased during the 18 years of study. However, these patients had an improved survival rate. Therefore, health organizations should pay more attention to non-communicable diseases, especially fatty liver disease and cholangitis.

Vancomycin and nisin-modified magnetic Fe3O4@SiO2 nanostructures coated with chitosan to enhance antibacterial efficiency against methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infection in a murine superficial wound model.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this research was to prepare some Fe3O4@SiO2@Chitosan (CS) magnetic nanocomposites coupled with nisin, and vancomycin to evaluate their antibacterial efficacy under both in vitro and in vivo against the methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus. aureus (MRSA). METHODS: In this survey, the Fe3O4@SiO2 magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) were constructed as a core and covered the surface of MNPs via crosslinking CS by glutaraldehyde as a shell, then functionalized with vancomycin and nisin to enhance the inhibitory effects of nanoparticles (NPs). X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), field emission scanning electron microscope (FE-SEM), vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM), and dynamic light scattering (DLS) techniques were then used to describe the nanostructures. RESULTS: Based on the XRD, and FE-SEM findings, the average size of the modified magnetic nanomaterials were estimated to be around 22-35 nm, and 34-47 nm, respectively. The vancomycin was conjugated in three polymer-drug ratios; 1:1, 2:1 and 3:1, with the percentages of 45.52%, 35.68%, and 24.4%, respectively. The polymer/drug ratio of 1:1 exhibited the slowest release rate of vancomycin from the Fe3O4@SiO2@CS-VANCO nanocomposites during 24 h, which was selected to examine their antimicrobial effects under in vivo conditions. The nisin was grafted onto the nanocomposites at around 73.2-87.2%. All the compounds resulted in a marked reduction in the bacterial burden (P-value < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The vancomycin-functionalized nanocomposites exhibited to be more efficient in eradicating the bacterial cells both in vitro and in vivo. These findings introduce a novel bacteriocin-metallic nanocomposite that can suppress the normal bacterial function on demand for the treatment of MRSA skin infections.

Exploring the impact of stage and tumor site on colorectal cancer survival: Bayesian survival modeling.

Colorectal cancer is a prevalent malignancy with global significance. This retrospective study aimed to investigate the influence of stage and tumor site on survival outcomes in 284 colorectal cancer patients diagnosed between 2001 and 2017. Patients were categorized into four groups based on tumor site (colon and rectum) and disease stage (early stage and advanced stage). Demographic characteristics, treatment modalities, and survival outcomes were recorded. Bayesian survival modeling was performed using semi-competing risks illness-death models with an accelerated failure time (AFT) approach, utilizing R 4.1 software. Results demonstrated significantly higher time ratios for disease recurrence (TR = 1.712, 95% CI 1.489-2.197), mortality without recurrence (TR = 1.933, 1.480-2.510), and mortality after recurrence (TR = 1.847, 1.147-2.178) in early-stage colon cancer compared to early-stage rectal cancer. Furthermore, patients with advanced-stage rectal cancer exhibited shorter survival times for disease recurrence than patients with early-stage colon cancer. The interaction effect between the disease site and cancer stage was not significant. These findings, derived from the optimal Bayesian log-normal model for terminal and non-terminal events, highlight the importance of early detection and effective management strategies for colon cancer. Early-stage colon cancer demonstrated improved survival rates for disease recurrence, mortality without recurrence, and mortality after recurrence compared to other stages. Early intervention and comprehensive care are crucial to enhance prognosis and minimize adverse events in colon cancer patients.

Spatial inequalities and non-linear association of continuous variables with mortality risk of liver transplantation in Iran: a retrospective cohort study.

Liver transplantation is the second most common solid organ transplant and the best option for liver failure. Of course, patient survival after transplantation depends on many risk factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial and non-linear effects of continuous risk factors on patient survival after liver transplantation. This retrospective cohort study (n = 3148) used data on liver transplantation in Iran (2004-2019). A generalized additive model with spatial effects and non-linear effects of age and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score variables by penalized spline was used. The majority of patients were male (63.3%), with a mean (SD) age of 42.65 (13.31) and a mean (SD) MELD score of 24.43 (6.72). The 1, 5, and 10-year survival rates were 88.2%, 84.6%, and 82.5% respectively. The non-linear effect showed a steeper slope of the age effect on the hazard of death after the age of 50 (p < 0.05), and the MELD score had a direct but non-linear relationship with the hazard of death (p < 0.05). In the spatial pattern, the provinces with a greater distance from the transplant center had significantly fewer old patients than other provinces. Also, more distant provinces with an older transplant age had higher post-transplant mortality rates. Our study showed that it is better to take age and MELD score into account in postoperative care. The spatial pattern of mortality risk reflects inequalities in access to transplantation and public health services after transplantation.

The impact of telenursing on level of depression, stress and anxiety in discharged patients after coronary artery bypass graft surgery: A randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: After coronary artery bypass graft surgery patients are susceptible to mental disorders such as stress, anxiety, and depression following discharge from the hospital and often require post-discharge support and follow-up. Telenursing is an accessible method that may reduce stress, anxiety, and depression experienced by patients. This study aimed to investigate the impact of telenursing on depression, stress, and anxiety in discharged patients after CABG surgery. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A randomized clinical trial was carried out. Eligible patients were divided randomly into intervention (n=40) and control (n=40) groups. Depression Anxiety Stress Scale-21 (DASS21) questionnaire was filled out by both groups one day before discharge from the hospital. The intervention group received SMS reminders of their treatment plan, referrals to the cardiac rehabilitation clinic, and routine care three times a week for six weeks, while the control group received routine care provided by the hospital only. In the week following the completion of the intervention period, both groups returned to fill out the questionnaire, and the data were analyzed using SPSS version 16.0, descriptive and inferential statistics, and independent and paired T-tests. RESULT: The mean scores of depression, stress, and anxiety before intervention in the intervention group were 11.95, 18.75, and 18.17, and in the control group were 11.55, 18.37, and 17.4 respectively. The mean scores of depression, stress, and anxiety after intervention in the intervention group were 7.85, 10.5, and 10.45, and in the control group were 10.56, 17.9, and 16.5 respectively. No significant differences were seen between the two groups before the intervention (P>0.05), but the results showed significant differences between the two groups' mean scores of depression, stress, and anxiety after intervention (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Telenursing can reduce stress, anxiety, and depression in discharged patients after coronary artery bypass graft surgery by providing proper and cost-effective follow-up.

Survival prediction and prognostic factors in colorectal cancer after curative surgery: insights from cox regression and neural networks.

Medical research frequently relies on Cox regression to analyze the survival distribution of cancer patients. Nonetheless, in specific scenarios, neural networks hold the potential to serve as a robust alternative. In this study, we aim to scrutinize the effectiveness of Cox regression and neural network models in assessing the survival outcomes of patients who have undergone treatment for colorectal cancer. We conducted a retrospective study on 284 colorectal cancer patients who underwent surgery at Imam Khomeini clinic in Hamadan between 2001 and 2017. The data was used to train both Cox regression and neural network models, and their predictive accuracy was compared using diagnostic measures such as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, accuracy, negative predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The analyses were performed using STATA 17 and R4.0.4 software. The study revealed that the best neural network model had a sensitivity of 74.5% (95% CI 61.0-85.0), specificity of 83.3% (65.3-94.4), positive predictive value of 89.1% (76.4-96.4), negative predictive value of 64.1% (47.2-78.8), AUC of 0.79 (0.70-0.88), and accuracy of 0.776 for death prediction. For recurrence, the best neural network model had a sensitivity of 88.1% (74.4-96.0%), specificity of 83.7% (69.3-93.2%), positive predictive value of 84.1% (69.9-93.4%), negative predictive value of 87.8% (73.8-95.9%), AUC of 0.86 (0.78-0.93), and accuracy of 0.859. The Cox model had comparable results, with a sensitivity of 73.6% (64.8-81.2) and 85.5% (78.3-91.0), specificity of 89.6% (83.8-93.8) and 98.0% (94.4-99.6), positive predictive value of 84.0% (75.6-90.4) and 97.4% (92.6-99.5), negative predictive value of 82.0% (75.6-90.4) and 88.8% (0.83-93.1), AUC of 0.82 (0.77-0.86) and 0.92 (0.89-0.95), and accuracy of 0.88 and 0.92 for death and recurrence prediction, respectively. In conclusion, the study found that both Cox regression and neural network models are effective in predicting early recurrence and death in patients with colorectal cancer after curative surgery. The neural network model showed slightly better sensitivity and negative predictive value for death, while the Cox model had better specificity and positive predictive value for recurrence. Overall, both models demonstrated high accuracy and AUC, indicating their usefulness in predicting these outcomes.

Joint Modeling of Longitudinal Outcome and Competing Risks: Application to HIV/AIDS Data.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are major public health challenges globally, and the number of TB infections and death caused by HIV are high because of HIV/ TB co-infection. On the other hand, CD4 count plays a significant role in TB/HIV co-infections. We used a joint model of longitudinal outcomes and competing risks to identify the potential risk factors and the effect of CD4 cells on TB infection and death caused by HIV in HIV-infected patients. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study. METHODS: The current study was performed on 1436 HIV+patients referred to Behavioral Diseases Counseling Centers in Kermanshah Province during 1998-2019. In this study, joint modeling was used to identify the effect of potential risk factors and CD4 cells on TB and death caused by HIV. RESULTS: The results demonstrated that the decreasing CD4 cell count was significantly associated with an increased risk of death, while it had no significant relation with the risk of TB. In addition, patients with TB were at a higher risk of death. Based on the results, a significant relationship was found between CD4 count and sex, marital status, education level, antiretroviral therapy (ART), time, and the interaction between time and ART. Further, people infected with HIV through sexual relationships were at higher risk of TB, while those with a history of imprisonment who received ART or were infected with HIV through drug injection had a lower risk of TB. CONCLUSION: The findings revealed that the decreasing CD4 count had a significant association with an increased risk of death caused by HIV. However, it was not significantly related to the risk of TB. Finally, patients with TB were at higher risk of death caused by HIV.

Estimation of treatment effect in presence of noncompliance and competing risks: a simulation study.

A randomized controlled trial is commonly designed to assess the treatment effect in survival studies, in which patients are randomly assigned to the standard or the experimental treatment group. Upon disease progression, patients who have been randomized to standard treatment are allowed to switch to the experimental treatment. Treatment switching in a randomized controlled trial refers to a situation in which patients switch from their randomized treatment to another treatment. Often, the switchis from the control group to the experimental treatment. In this case, the treatment effect estimate is adjusted using either convenient naive methods such as intention-to-treat, per-protocol or advanced methods such as rank preserving structural failure time (RPSFT) models. In previous simulation studies performed so far, there was only one possible outcome for patients. However, in oncology in particular, multiple outcomes are potentially possible. These outcomes are called competing risks. This aspect has not been considered in previous studies when determining the effect of a treatment in the presence of noncompliance. This study aimed to extend the RPSFT method using a two-dimensional G-estimation in the presence of competing risks. The RPSFT method was extended for two events, the event of interest and the competing event. For this purpose, the RPSFT method was applied based on the cause-specific hazard approach, the result of which is compared to the naive methods used in simulation studies. The results show that the proposed method has a good performance compared to other methods.

Recurrence and Postoperative Death in Patients with Colorectal Cancer: A New Perspective via Semi-competing Risk Framework.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Cancer studies suffer from an overestimation of prediction of survival when both recurrence and death are of interest. This longitudinal study aimed to mitigate this problem utilizing a semi-competing risk approach evaluating the factors affecting recurrence and postoperative death in patients with colorectal cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This longitudinal prospective study was conducted in 284 patients with resected colorectal cancer who were referred to the Imam Khomeini Clinic in Hamadan, Iran, during 2001-2017. Primary outcomes were postoperative outcomes and patient survival, including time to recurrence (of colorectal cancer), time to death, and time to death after recurrence. All patients who were alive at the end of the study were censored for death and who did not experience recurrence of colorectal cancer were also censored for recurrent colorectal cancer. The relationship between underlying demographics and clinical factors and the outcomes was assessed using a semicompeting risk approach. RESULTS: The results of the multivariable analysis showed that having metastasis to other sites (hazard ratio = 36.03; 95% CI = 19.48- 66.64) and higher pathological node (pN) stage (hazard ratio = 2.46; 95% CI = 1.32-4.56) were associated with a raised hazard of recurrence. The fewer chemotherapies (hazard ratio = 0.39; 95% CI = 0.17-0.88) and higher pN stages (hazard ratio = 4.32; 95% CI = 1.27-14.75) showed significantly higher hazards of death without recurrence. Having metastasis to other sites (hazard ratio = 2.67; 95% CI = 1.24-5.74) and higher pN stages (hazard ratio = 1.91; 95% CI = 1.02-3.61) were linked with the higher hazard of death after recurrence. CONCLUSION: Considering findings on death /recu rrenc e-spe cific predictors obtained in this study to manage the outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer, tailored strategies for preventive and interventional plans should be deliberated.

The estimation of long and short term survival time and associated factors of HIV patients using mixture cure rate models.

BACKGROUND: HIV is one of the deadliest epidemics and one of the most critical global public health issues. Some are susceptible to die among people living with HIV and some survive longer. The aim of the present study is to use mixture cure models to estimate factors affecting short- and long-term survival of HIV patients. METHODS: The total sample size was 2170 HIV-infected people referred to the disease counseling centers in Kermanshah Province, in the west of Iran, from 1998 to 2019. A Semiparametric PH mixture cure model and a mixture cure frailty model were fitted to the data. Also, a comparison between these two models was performed. RESULTS: Based on the results of the mixture cure frailty model, antiretroviral therapy, tuberculosis infection, history of imprisonment, and mode of HIV transmission influenced short-term survival time (p-value < 0.05). On the other hand, prison history, antiretroviral therapy, mode of HIV transmission, age, marital status, gender, and education were significantly associated with long-term survival (p-value < 0.05). The concordance criteria (K-index) value for the mixture cure frailty model was 0.65 whereas for the semiparametric PH mixture cure model was 0.62. CONCLUSION: This study showed that the frailty mixture cure models is more suitable in the situation where the studied population consisted of two groups, susceptible and non-susceptible to the event of death. The people with a prison history, who received ART treatment, and contracted HIV through injection drug users survive longer. Health professionals should pay more attention to these findings in HIV prevention and treatment.

Epidemiological pattern of trauma patients based on the mechanisms of trauma: trends of a regional trauma center in Midwest of Iran.

INTRODUCTION: Trauma is one of the important issues in public health because it is responsible for 90% of mortality in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LIMCs). The present study aimed to determine the epidemiological pattern of trauma patients in a regional trauma center in the Midwest of Iran from 2014 to 2020. METHODS: This study was a retrospective study that was performed on 29,804 trauma patients admitted to Be'sat Hospital in Hamadan from January 2014 to December 2020. Data was collected using Health Information Management (HIM) Center of the Be'sat Hospital. For investigating the relationship of the characteristics of trauma patients and the mechanisms of trauma, Multiple Multinomial Logistic Regression (MMNLR) model was used. All statistical analyses were performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics version 24. RESULTS: The mean age of all patients was 35.4 (SD = 21.9) years. Most of them were men (71.7%). The most common mechanism of trauma was road traffic accidents (RTAs) (39.6%) followed by falls (30.2%), other (19.7%), violence (6.2%), and burn (4.4%). 1.5% of the trauma patients expired. The results of multiple multinomial logistic regression indicated that significant affected factor on odds referring because of RTAs compared to other mechanism were: season and hospital length of stay (LOS); in falls and violence: age, sex, season, and LOS; and in burn: age, sex, season, evening time, and LOS (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Based on the investigation of 29,804 trauma patients, in Iran as a developing country, RTAs and falls were two common mechanisms of trauma. It seems that as a short-term plan, it is possible to focus on road safety, to improve the quality of vehicles, to hold training courses for drivers. Also, as a long-term goal, considering that the elderly population in Iran is increasing, it is necessary to pay attention to fall reduction programs.

Improving service efficiency and throughput of cardiac surgery patients using Monte Carlo simulation: a queueing setting.

Bed occupancy rate (BOR) is important for healthcare policymakers. Studies showed the necessity of using simulation approach when encountering complex real-world problems to plan the optimal use of resources and improve the quality of services. So, the aim of the present study is to estimate average length of stay (LOS), BOR, bed blocking probability (BBP), and throughput of patients in a cardiac surgery department (CSD) using simulation models. We studied the behavior of a CSD as a complex queueing system at the Farshchian Hospital. In the queueing model, customers were patients and servers were beds in intensive care unit (ICU) and post-operative ward (POW). A computer program based on the Monte Carlo simulation, using Python software, was developed to evaluate the behavior of the system under different number of beds in ICU and POW. The queueing simulation study showed that, for a fixed number of beds in ICU, BOR in POW decreases as the number of beds in POW increases and LOS in ICU increases as the number of beds in POW decreases. Also, based on the available data, the throughput of patients in the CSD during 800 days was 1999 patients. Whereas, the simulation results showed that, 2839 patients can be operated in the same period. The results of the simulation study clearly demonstrated the behavior of the CSD; so, it must be mentioned, hospital administrators should design an efficient plan to increase BOR and throughput of patients in the future.

A bayesian approach to model the underlying predictors of early recurrence and postoperative death in patients with colorectal Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at utilizing a Bayesian approach semi-competing risks technique to model the underlying predictors of early recurrence and postoperative Death in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 284 patients with colorectal cancer, who underwent surgery, referred to Imam Khomeini clinic in Hamadan from 2001 to 2017. The primary outcomes were the probability of recurrence, the probability of Mortality without recurrence, and the probability of Mortality after recurrence. The patients 'recurrence status was determined from patients' records. The Bayesian survival modeling was carried out by semi-competing risks illness-death models, with accelerated failure time (AFT) approach, in R 4.1 software. The best model was chosen according to the lowest deviance information criterion (DIC) and highest logarithm of the pseudo marginal likelihood (LPML). RESULTS: The log-normal model (DIC = 1633, LPML = -811), was the optimal model. The results showed that gender(Time Ratio = 0.764: 95% Confidence Interval = 0.456-0.855), age at diagnosis (0.764: 0.538-0.935 ), T3 stage (0601: 0.530-0.713), N2 stage (0.714: 0.577-0.935 ), tumor size (0.709: 0.610-0.929), grade of differentiation at poor (0.856: 0.733-0.988), and moderate (0.648: 0.503-0.955) levels, and the number of chemotherapies (1.583: 1.367-1.863) were significantly related to recurrence. Also, age at diagnosis (0.396: 0.313-0.532), metastasis to other sites (0.566: 0.490-0.835), T3 stage (0.363: 0.592 - 0.301), T4 stage (0.434: 0.347-0.545), grade of differentiation at moderate level (0.527: 0.387-0.674), tumor size (0.595: 0.500-0.679), and the number of chemotherapies (1.541: 1.332-2.243) were the significantly predicted the death. Also, age at diagnosis (0.659: 0.559-0.803), and the number of chemotherapies (2.029: 1.792-2.191) were significantly related to mortality after recurrence. CONCLUSION: According to specific results obtained from the optimal Bayesian log-normal model for terminal and non-terminal events, appropriate screening strategies and the earlier detection of CRC leads to substantial improvements in the survival of patients.

Socio-economic disparities in female genital circumcision: finding from a case-control study in Mahabad, Iran.

BACKGROUND: Female genital circumcision (FGC) is still a challenge in reproductive health. This study investigated socioeconomic disparities in FGC in the Kurdish region of Mahabad, Iran. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted in three comprehensive health centers on 130 circumcised girls as the case group and 130 girls without a history of circumcision as the control group, according to the residential area and the religious sect. The participants completed a previously validated demographic and circumcision information questionnaire. A multivariate logistic regression model with a backward method at a 95% confidence level was used to determine the relationship between socioeconomic variables and FGC. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression showed that a family history of FGC (AOR 9.90; CI 95%: 5.03-19.50), age ranging between 20 and 30 years (AOR 8.55; CI 95%: 3.09-23.62), primary education (AOR 6.6; CI 95%: 1.34-33.22), and mothers with primary education (AOR 5.75; CI 95%: 1.23-26.76) increased the chance of FGC. CONCLUSION: The present study provided evidence on socioeconomic factors related to FGC in girls. A family history of FGC, age ranging between 20 and 30 years, and girls' and their mothers' education level were strong predictors of FGC. The findings indicate the need to design effective interventions to address these factors to help eradicate FGC.

Investigating factors associated with the number of rehospitalizations among patients with schizophrenia disorder using penalized count regression models.

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia is a chronic, severe, and debilitating mental disorder always considered one of the recurrent psychiatric diseases. This study aimed to use penalized count regression models to determine factors associated with the number of rehospitalizations of schizophrenia disorder. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was performed on 413 schizophrenic patients who had been referred to the Sina (Farshchian) Educational and Medical Center in Hamadan, Iran, between March 2011 and March 2019. The penalized count regression models were fitted using R.3.5.2. RESULTS: About 73% of the patients were male. The mean (SD) of age and the number of rehospitalizations were 36.16 (11.18) years and 1.21 (2.18), respectively. According to the results, longer duration of illness (P < 0.001), having a positive family history of psychiatric illness (P = 0.017), having at least three children (P = 0.013), unemployment, disability, and retirement (P = 0.025), residence in other Hamadan province townships (P = 0.003) and having a history of arrest/prison (P = 0.022) were significantly associated with an increase in the number of rehospitalizations. CONCLUSION: To reduce the number of rehospitalizations among schizophrenic patients, it is recommended to provide special medical services for patients who do not have access to specialized medical centers and to create the necessary infrastructure for the employment of patients.

Peripheral distributions of IL-4-producing CD4 + T cells and CD4 + CD25 + FoxP3 + T cells (Tregs) in rheumatoid arthritis patients with poor response to therapy are associated with HLA shared epitope alleles and ACPA status.

Specific profiling of CD4 + T cell subsets in the circulation and inflamed joints of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients may have therapeutic implications. This study aimed to evaluate the peripheral distributions of Th2 and Treg cells in relation to HLA-shared epitope (SE) alleles and anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody (ACPAs) status in patients with good response (GR) and poor response (PR) to treatment. The frequencies of IL-4-producing CD4 + T cells (Th2) and CD4 + CD25 + Foxp3 + T cells (Tregs) were determined by flow cytometry in 167 RA patients including 114 GR and 53 PR cases. CD4 + T cell subsets were also analyzed based on HLA-SE and ACPAs statuses. One hundred nine of 167 patients were positives for HLA-SE, 63.4% for ACPAs, 43.7% for SE/ACPAs and 14.9% were negatives for SE/ACPAs. Higher frequencies of Th2 (P = 0.001) and Treg cells (P = 0.03) were found in the patients versus controls. Increased and decreased frequencies of Th2 and Tregs cells were observed in the PR versus GR patients respectively (P = 0.003 and P = 0.004). Higher proportions of Th2 cells were observed in the SE+RA versus SE-RA (P = 0.001), in ACPA+RA versus ACPA-RA (P = 0.005) and in the SE+ACPA+RA versus SE-ACPA-RA patients (P = 0.002). Treg cells frequencies decreased in the SE+RA versus SE-RA (P = 0.03) and in SE+ACPA+RA versus SE-ACPA-RA (P = 0.02). ACPA+GR and SE+PR patients showed higher proportions of Th2 cells than ACPA-GR and SE-PR patients respectively (P = 0.02 and P = 0.01). Analysis of the CD4 + T cell subsets profiles in conjunction with genetic background and autoantibodies patterns can be useful for precise therapeutic response monitoring in the RA patients.

Influential Factors on Survival in Gastric Cancer: A Single-center Study.

Background: Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the conspicuous causes of cancer-related death worldwide. Considering the mounting incidence of this cancer in developing countries such as Iran, determining the influential factors on the survival of involved patients is noteworthy. Hence, we aimed to ascertain the survival rates and the prognostic factors in our GC patients. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, data of 314 patients with GC in a referral cancer center in Hamadan province of Iran were studied. The outcome of our study was survival time and the influential factors were gender, age at diagnosis, tumor history, tumor grade, surgery history, radiotherapy history, stage of disease, metastasis history, and lymph node involvement. Kaplan - Meier method and log-rank test were used for the calculation and comparing the survival curves and Cox-proportional hazard model was used for the multivariable analysis of prognostic factors. Results: In a total of 314 GC patients, the median age at the diagnosis was 63 years (range: 21-92) with most patients (74.84%) being males. The median follow-up time was 2.42 years, and the median survival time was 2 years. The multivariable cox analysis of overall survival (OS) indicated that having distant metastasis increased the hazard of death by about 2.5 times (P < 0.0001, heart rates [HR]: 2.53, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [1.71, 3.75]), and receiving surgery as treatment, decreased the hazard of death up to 36% (P = 0.02, HR: 0.64, 95%CI: [0.46-0.89]). The other variables did not have any significant effects on the OS. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that lower survival (greater hazard of death) strongly and significantly associated with having distant metastasis in patients with GC and receiving surgery could significantly decrease the hazard of death in these patients instead.

Female Genital Mutilation, Sexual Quality of Life and Marital Relationship: A Case-Control Study From Iran.

Objective: Studies on the sexual consequences of female genital mutilation is mostly related to sexual function, while sexual quality of life is a more objective criterion for studying the effects of genital mutilation on the women's sexual life. The purpose of this study was to compare the sexual quality of life and marital relationship in the mutilated women with other women living in the Kurd region of Mahabad (Iran). Materials and methods: In a case-control study, 600 married women (300 mutilated and 300 non-mutilated women) who referred to the health centers completed the sexual quality of life questionnaire (SQOL-F) as well as demographic questionnaires. Data analyzed using chi-square, independent t-test, and linear regression model with stepwise method at 95% confidence level. Results: The mean total score of sexual quality of life in the mutilated group (40.28±16.76) was significantly lower than the control group (45.29±19.16). The chance of having a higher score of sexual quality of life in the mutilated group was 0.13 times lower than the control group. This value was 0.16 times for self-worthlessness area, 0.10 for sexual repression, 0.12 for psycho-sexual feeling, and 0.32 for sexual and marital satisfaction areas (p <0.05). In the mutilated group, the total score of sexual quality of life was significantly correlated with age, income, spouse's violence, spouse's infidelity, intercourse frequency, and residence status (P <0.05). Conclusion: Female genital mutilation can decrease the sexual quality of life and increase the chance of negative consequences such as spouse violence, infidelity, and intercourse reduction.